Brent Crude Tops $90 as Middle East Strikes Fuel Supply Fears
Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 7% to cross $90 per barrel on July 29 after renewed airstrikes in the Middle East and warnings from US President Trump over Iranian attacks raised the spectre of severe supply disruptions. India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil, faces a potential surge in its import bill.
· 2 min read
Brent Crude Crosses $90 as Middle East Conflict Intensifies
Global oil markets witnessed one of their most volatile sessions of the year on July 29, 2026, as Brent crude surged more than 7% to climb above $90 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also posted sharp gains, with prices rising over 6% in intraday trading. The sudden spike was driven by a confluence of geopolitical and supply-side factors that rattled energy traders worldwide.
Trump Warns Iran as Attacks on US Forces Reported
The immediate catalyst was a fresh round of military hostilities in the Middle East. Reports of attacks on US forces, attributed to Iran-linked groups, prompted a stern public warning from US President Donald Trump about potential consequences. Trump’s statement significantly raised the risk premium embedded in oil prices, with traders bracing for possible retaliatory action that could disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.
Airstrikes in the broader region added further alarm, with military activity near key oil infrastructure keeping markets on high alert. Analysts noted that any disruption to Hormuz flows could have an outsized impact on global supply, given the volumes that pass through the strait daily.
Inventory Data Amplifies the Squeeze
Compounding the geopolitical anxiety, US crude oil inventories fell to a multi-year low, a development that signals tightening physical supply even before any disruption materialises. With OPEC+ expected to hold its current production levels, there appears to be limited buffer capacity to absorb a potential supply shock in the near term.
India’s Import Bill Under Pressure
The price surge carries significant consequences for India, which imports close to 90% of its crude oil requirements. Analysts estimate that a sustained $1 per barrel rise maintained over a full year could add approximately ₹18,000 crore to the country’s import bill. With Brent prices having moved sharply in a short span, concerns about the widening of India’s current account deficit and renewed pressure on the rupee are resurfacing.
Domestic fuel retailers, inflation dynamics, and the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy calculus could all be affected if oil prices remain elevated. The government may also face pressure on subsidies or fuel price adjustments depending on how long prices stay at current levels.
Market Outlook Remains Uncertain
Analysts broadly expect oil prices to remain within a wide and volatile range in the near term, contingent on how the geopolitical situation in the Middle East evolves. A de-escalation could swiftly reverse a portion of the gains, while further hostilities could push prices even higher.
Sources: Economic Times, LiveMint, LiveMint
For information only and not investment advice. Summarised from the cited sources; figures may be delayed. Do your own research before investing.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Brent crude prices surge on July 29, 2026?
Brent crude surged over 7% to cross $90 per barrel following fresh airstrikes in the Middle East, attacks on US forces attributed to Iran, and warnings from US President Trump about consequences for Tehran. US crude inventories also fell to a multi-year low, compounding supply concerns.
How does a rise in crude oil prices affect India?
India imports approximately 90% of its oil needs, making it highly sensitive to global price moves. Analysts estimate that a sustained $1 per barrel increase in crude prices over a year could add around ₹18,000 crore to India's import bill, widening the current account deficit and pressuring the rupee.
What is OPEC+'s expected response to the price surge?
According to analysts, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current output policy in the near term, which could keep supply tight and support elevated oil prices.
Sources
For information only — not investment advice. News is summarised from the cited public sources; figures may be delayed or inaccurate. Do your own research before investing.